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Industrial
Real Estate

Industrial was the best-performing CRE sector 2020–2024. E-commerce drove last-mile logistics demand. Supply chain reshoring drove manufacturing. Institutional capital (Prologis, Rexford, EastGroup, Terreno) compressed cap rates to 4–5% in prime logistics markets. 2025–2026 shows the cycle turning — record supply delivering into slowing demand — but fundamentals for well-located Class A industrial remain strong.

Sub-types

  • Bulk distribution / warehouse. 250,000–1M+ sqft. Regional distribution, long-haul logistics hubs. 32–40 ft clear height. Amazon, Walmart, FedEx, UPS as anchor tenants.
  • Last-mile logistics. 80k–200k sqft, infill urban or near-urban location. Same-day and next-day delivery fulfillment. Premium cap rate (4–5.5%) due to location scarcity.
  • Flex / light industrial. 20k–80k sqft. Multi-tenant. Office component (15–30%) mixed with warehouse/shop. Small business tenants. 6.5–8.5% cap rates.
  • Manufacturing. Owner-occupied or single-tenant lease. Custom build-outs, specialized power, floor load. Sale- leaseback opportunities.
  • Cold storage. Specialized refrigerated (0–32°F) or frozen (-10°F). Heavy capex, high utility cost, barrier-to-entry yields 5.5–7.5% cap rates.
  • Data centers. Separate institutional sector. Massive power (megawatts), cooling, fiber. Yield 5–6% on long-term NNN tenant leases to hyperscalers.

Key physical metrics

  • Clear height. 24–28 ft older, 32 ft modern, 36–40 ft newest. Higher clear supports racking to 7–9 levels — more pallets per sqft, higher rent.
  • Dock doors. Ratio 1 dock door per 8,000–10,000 sqft. Under-docked buildings struggle to lease to logistics tenants.
  • Truck court depth. 130–185 ft. 130 ft supports 53-ft trailer turning. Under 130 ft limits tenant set.
  • Trailer parking. Ratio 1 trailer spot per 5,000–10,000 sqft for logistics tenants. Short on parking = difficult to lease.
  • Column spacing. 50×50 ft modern vs. 30×30 ft older. Wider spacing = racking flexibility.
  • Power. 2,000–4,000 amps standard. Manufacturing needs more. Cold storage and data center needs much more.
  • Office-to-warehouse ratio. 5–10% office typical. Flex industrial higher (15–30%).

Lease structures

Industrial is overwhelmingly NNN or absolute NNN:

  • Term. 5–15 years. Logistics tenants often 7–10 years. Long-term manufacturing 15+ years.
  • Escalations. 2.5–3% annual, or 10% steps every 5 years. Some CPI- indexed.
  • TI (Tenant Improvement). $5–15/sqft for basic warehouse, $30–100/sqft for office or specialized build-out.
  • Free rent. 3–6 months typical on new leases, amortized into effective rate.
  • Guarantees. Corporate guarantee from investment-grade credit; personal from franchisees; letter of credit on weaker credit.

Tenant credit

  • Investment grade (S&P BBB+ or better). Amazon, FedEx, UPS, Walmart, Target, major manufacturers. Premium pricing, 50–100 bps cap rate compression.
  • Non-rated corporate. Mid-market companies without public rating. Pull credit reports, tax returns, financial statements.
  • 3PL (Third-Party Logistics). XPO, J.B. Hunt, Performance Team, GXO. Strong but contract-dependent — cash flow follows customer contracts.
  • Small business. Flex industrial tenants. Personal guarantees from owner, letter of credit for weaker.

Major industrial markets

  • Inland Empire (Riverside/San Bernardino) — largest US market, LA port feeder
  • New Jersey (Exits 7A–12) — port of NY/NJ, highest rents nationally
  • PA 81 corridor / Lehigh Valley — NY/NJ/Philadelphia gateway
  • Dallas/Fort Worth — central US distribution hub
  • Atlanta — Southeast hub, strong growth
  • Chicago — Midwest distribution center
  • Houston — Gulf ports, energy, chemicals
  • Phoenix — fastest-growing major industrial market
  • Memphis — FedEx hub
  • Columbus — central Midwest logistics
  • South Florida — Miami port, LatAm gateway
  • Savannah / Charleston — East Coast port growth

Environmental risk — CERCLA

Industrial environmental liability is substantial and long-tail. Former uses of an industrial parcel — even decades prior — create owner liability under CERCLA (Superfund) regardless of who caused the contamination. Mandatory diligence:

  • Phase I ESA. AAI (All Appropriate Inquiries) compliant per EPA ruling. Reviews historical aerial photos, regulatory database, chain of title, interviews. $2,500–5,000.
  • Phase II ESA. If Phase I identifies recognized environmental conditions (RECs), Phase II confirms via soil and groundwater sampling. $15,000–75,000.
  • Remediation. If Phase II confirms contamination. TCE/PCE plumes (chlorinated solvents from former dry cleaners, metal finishing) can cost $500k–$5M+.
  • Innocent-purchaser defense. Available only if proper AAI diligence performed pre-purchase. Documents must be preserved.

Environmental insurance (pollution legal liability PLL) available at $10k–50k/year premium depending on risk — worthwhile on any property with industrial history.

Common pitfalls

  • Functional obsolescence. Low clear height (under 24 ft), shallow truck court, limited trailer parking, bad column spacing. These attributes kill leasability in modern logistics market.
  • Tenant credit deterioration. Fortune 500 tenant spins off a division into a non-rated entity. Lease assignment without your consent. Read anti-assignment clauses.
  • Zoning / truck restrictions. Municipality bans truck traffic or imposes noise ordinance limiting overnight operations. Destroys logistics value.
  • Concentration risk. Single-tenant NNN with 2 years of term remaining. If tenant doesn’t renew, value drops 30–60% to market re-leasing basis minus TI costs.
  • Environmental surprise. Adjacent property contamination migrates onto yours. You become responsible party.
  • 2025–2026 supply wave. Record construction 2022–2024 delivering in 2025. Tertiary markets now over-supplied. Primary markets remain tight but with rent growth compression.
  • Rail-dependence. Some older industrial was built for rail access. If rail line abandons, distribution economics change.
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